Memory prices are set to stay high through 2027. What that means for your Black Friday basket

Counterpoint Research's latest memory tracker, published on 5 November, has one comparison that matters if you're pricing up a phone or laptop this month. Worldwide DRAM revenue in the third quarter of 2026 was up 369% year on year, to nearly $200bn. The amount of memory shipped rose only about 4%. Almost all of that growth is price: the average reached $1.9 per gigabit.

It isn't about to reverse. Counterpoint's MS Hwang says memory prices should stay strong next year because the big new fabs won't start production until 2028, and his colleague Brady Wang expects the price per gigabit to rise again, which he says will create headwinds for "edge markets". For most of us, that means the phones, tablets and laptops in our baskets. SK hynix expects demand to outstrip supply through 2030, The Register reports.

None of that tells you what a given phone will cost in March. It does tell you that none of Counterpoint, IDC, Omdia or SK hynix expects relief soon, and that's the backdrop to every "deal" before Black Friday on 27 November.

The rises so far, and where they've stuck

• Samsung had raised its own UK list prices for the Galaxy S26 range by 2 October, when Tech Advisor reported that all three models now start £80 higher. SamMobile's tier-by-tier breakdown shows £80 on most models, and more on the 1TB S26 Ultra, now £1,860. SamMobile calls that a £330 rise, but Tech Advisor gave its launch price as £1,699, which would make it about £160. There was "no warning, no press release and zero acknowledgement" from Samsung, Tech Advisor says, while SamMobile puts the rise down to memory costs. Retailers haven't followed: Samsung's own store now asks £960 for the 256GB Galaxy S26 (SamMobile), but on 8 November PriceSpy had it at £589 from Amazon.
• Apple added $100 to the US price of the iPhone 17, 17e, Air and 16 on 9 September, MacRumors reports. Apple gave no reason, but Tim Cook said in June it could no longer absorb rising memory and storage costs. Apple's UK store lists the iPhone 17 at £899 for 256GB.
• Analyst firm Context found European distribution prices for laptops up 11.4% year on year between April and mid-May, and desktops up 10.5%, The Register reported. That's what wholesalers charge resellers, not UK shop prices.
• IDC estimates global smartphone shipments fell 22% year on year in the third quarter, and Omdia says 20%, both preliminary, per The Register. Neither sees relief before 2028.

Cheap phones and laptops are the most exposed

If there's one thing to buy sooner rather than later, it's a budget or mid-range Android phone. Memory pushed up the parts cost of a low-end phone by 70% year on year by the second quarter, Counterpoint's August tracker says, and in cheap and mid-range phones memory now makes up 40% to 50% of the parts bill, according to a June report. Counterpoint also says some phones under $150 face "effective permanent ejection" from the market, with the squeeze lasting through the second half of 2027.

Phones at this end have no margin to hide that in, so expect a higher price, a cheaper spec or no replacement at all. The 12GB/256GB Moto G57 Power was £259.95 from OnBuy on 8 November, PriceSpy shows, within a three-month range of £229.95 to £359.95. Whatever replaces it may come with less memory, or cost more.

Cheap laptops are squeezed too. Analysts had already warned that sub-$500 laptops may disappear in 2026 as vendors can't or won't make them at those prices, The Register reported in June.

Flagships aren't a safe place to wait either

Spending £1,000 doesn't get you out of it: Counterpoint says DRAM has overtaken the processor as the most expensive component in premium phones.

The rises also break the habit of waiting for last year's model to get cheaper, at least at the maker's own store. Apple raised older iPhones when it launched new ones, and Samsung raised the S26 months after launch. Flat rises hurt cheaper models more: Samsung's £80 is 9% on a Galaxy S26 that launched at £879, but about 5.5% on a 512GB S26 Ultra that launched at £1,449 (Tech Advisor). Those are Samsung's list prices, though, and few people pay them.

Going up a storage tier: the evidence is thinner than you'd think

The pitch you'll hear is "buy the bigger model now, before memory gets dearer". Samsung's list prices partly back it. At launch the 512GB S26 Ultra was £1,449 and the 1TB £1,699, a £250 step (Tech Advisor). Now it's £1,530 against £1,860, a £330 step (SamMobile).

You won't pay anything like that in the shops. On 8 November PriceSpy had the 512GB S26 Ultra from £882.46 at OnBuy, or £959 at Amazon, and the 1TB from £1,199 at Joybuy, or £1,379 at Amazon and AO. The 512GB Galaxy S26 was from £699 at Joybuy, or £799 at Amazon, against £589 for the 256GB. PriceSpy flags all four with Black Friday prices, so treat the cheapest as sale prices. Even Amazon's prices are hundreds below Samsung's, though.

So decide on those. Doubling the S26 to 512GB costs £110 to £210 at retail, which is worth it if you'd realistically fill it over the three or four years you'll keep the phone. The 1TB Ultra is a harder sell: at Amazon it's £420 more than the 512GB. A bigger tier you don't need is no bargain just because memory is expensive.

A mid-range phone that already has plenty of memory may be the better bet. PriceSpy lists the 12GB/512GB Motorola Edge 70 from £399.99 on 8 November, though that's on eBay. Very's £469 is the lowest elsewhere, PriceSpy shows.

How to tell a Black Friday price is real

Which? tracked 175 Black Friday products around the 2024 sales and found 83% were the same price or cheaper at least once in the six months before or after.

• Check the price history, not the "was" price. PriceSpy, PriceRunner and, for Amazon, camelcamelcamel show how prices have moved. PriceSpy puts the Edge 70's three-month range at £393 to £499, so a "deal" at £449 is just the middle of its normal range.
• Ignore savings against a list price nobody pays. The 512GB Galaxy S26 at £699 is hundreds under Samsung's price, but its three-month low on PriceSpy is £498.99.
• Compare tiers. If a shop cuts the 256GB model but barely touches the 512GB, stepping up costs more than the list prices suggest.

What we'd do

If you need a budget or mid-range phone or a laptop in the next six months, a Black Friday price that beats its three-month low is worth taking. If it's a Galaxy S26, buy from a retailer, not Samsung's store. If you don't need anything, don't let the headlines rush you. Just don't count on waiting to save you money.